JOHANNESBURG – South Africa’s mining sector, long the bedrock of the national economy, hit a significant stumbling block in late 2025 as production fell by 2.7% year-on-year in November. The latest data from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) signals a jarring reversal for the industry, which had seen a revised 6.1% surge only a month prior. The contraction, which caught many analysts off guard, highlights the fragile nature of a recovery currently being undermined by systemic infrastructure failings and a volatile global demand landscape.
The downturn was broad-based, with heavyweights in the mining basket dragging down the headline figure. Coal production, which accounts for more than a quarter of the sector’s total weight, tumbled by 7.9%, while iron ore and gold output fell by 7.6% and 6.0% respectively. Even the usually resilient Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) saw a 2.8% dip. On a month-on-month basis, the picture was even more stark, with seasonally adjusted production plunging 5.9% as the momentum gained during the third quarter appeared to evaporate under the weight of operational hurdles.
Industry experts point to a “perfect storm” of internal and external pressures that have made extraction increasingly uncompetitive. Lara Hodes, an economist at Investec, noted that the result was “markedly weaker than consensus expectations,” citing aging mine infrastructure and logistical bottlenecks as persistent thorns in the side of exporters. While manganese ore and diamond production offered rare bright spots—growing by 17.0% and 27.9% respectively—their gains were insufficient to offset the deep losses recorded in the coal and iron ore sectors.
The financial health of the sector is also being tested by a relentless rise in administrative costs. While mineral sales at current prices remained relatively flat with a minor 0.3% year-on-year decrease, the underlying cost of doing business has soared. The Minerals Council South Africa has flagged that electricity costs jumped by 15.9% and water tariffs rose by 11.6% over the period, significantly outpacing headline inflation and eating into the margins of energy-intensive deep-level mines.
In a media statement addressing the mounting pressure on the industry, the Minerals Council South Africa emphasized that structural reforms remain the only long-term solution. “A thriving mining sector will help ease pressure on the budget,” the Council stated, adding that “unlocking mining’s full potential through the implementation of an investor-friendly regulatory and operating environment could help stave off future tax increases in the coming years.”
Despite the November slump, there remains a glimmer of hope for a quarterly recovery. Seasonally adjusted output for the three months ending in November actually rose by 1.6% compared to the previous period, suggesting that the industry’s baseline remains higher than it was earlier in the year. However, with the Eurozone—a critical trading partner—showing signs of demand-side weakness and global trade tensions remaining high, South African miners are bracing for a challenging start to 2026.
